Scientific - forecoast laboratory of earthquakes
Department of operational Information
There could have been less victims
Unfortunately people who are threatened by strong earthquakes aren't always aware of the forecasts placed on our Internet site. Nowadays there is no another organisation which can make the forecasts for 2 days with such an exactness. Let's evaluate the recent earthquakes which lead to the great amount of victims. The earthquake in Turkey on the 10th of April was predicted 2 days beforehead (the forecast of April 9th 2003). The accurance of the forecasts is +/- 13 hours, because nesessary data is received only once a day. That's why this earthquake matched the koordinate of the epicentre in 1 km & happened 40 minutes later it was predicted. (west part of Turkey 04.10.2003) The devastating earthquake in the eastern part of Turkey on May 1 was predicted only 1 day before, but we weren't able to place it here, because we don't have an access to the server, where our forecasts are placed, all the time. The strongest eathquake in the northern part of Algeria was forecasted 2 days beforehead & was placed on the site on May 20. (of Algeria 05.20.2003) Even 2 epicentres were pointed out on the map. We predicted the opportunity of forming of a vast area with lots of shocks. (northern part of Algeria 05.21.2003) We wanted to make a more presice forecast on the 21 of May but the nessesary data we received were of a bad quality as it happens frequently. We lacked data about the northern part of Africa, so we couldn't predict the precise strength of an earthquake & the coordinate of an epicentre, You can see the forecasts of recent earthquakes (here) ,
. We have to state the following: - there could have been less victims if the information had reached the people living in seismic dangerous regions in time. - the factor affecting the accurance of the forecasts is the lack of a detailed (in time) & qualitative information. - the timeliness of the forecasts is closely connected with the opportunity of placing them on the server by ourselves. the lack of finance is the main factor. All this highlights that the "paradigm of unpredictableness" of earthquakes made up by the followers of traditional methods of foresasting is wrong. Making up the forecasts needed so much by all living in seismic dangerous regions is possible with sufficient exactness. State forecasting servises should make up a number of joint measures to do this task. But we don't have any support, so the only thing we can do is to continue the list of the catastrophes,in which ther could have been less victims.b>The stronf earthquake in the northern part of Algeria on May 27 2003 (eathquake 05.27.2003) was forecasted & placed on the site 2 days beforehead u> (northern part of Algeria 05.27.2003) . The epicenter is shown with the exactness in 1 km. But this forecasst didn't reached the people of Algeria & this again lead to a great amount of victims. Killer quake in the Northern part of Morocco on February 24, 2004 (The earthquake of February 24, 2004.) was forecasted and exhibited to the server for 2 day, i.e. February 22 (February 22, 2004 northern part of Morocco) However it was still preliminary forecast. The exact place of an epicenter of earthquake & its force were indicated in the forecast on February 23, 2004. (February 23, 2004) The accuracy of time of the forecast, as was already spoken, depends on a discrimination of the used data. As we receive the information with a discrimination of 24 hours, error in time can reach up to +, - 13 hours. The earthquake "was late" for 2 hours 27 minutes and happened during the night of February 24. If the forecast were accessible to the inhabitants of Morocco, 571 men would remain to live and 405 damaged would not appear.
27.02.2004